UNEP Releases Assessment Showing Global Average Temperature Rise Likely to Exceed 1.5°C

UNEP announced on September 2, 2026, the publication of its report Limiting Overshoot, which assesses that the rise in the global average temperature is on track to exceed 1.5°C. The 1.5°C threshold is the climate‑stabilization benchmark set under the Paris Agreement, and the report indicates that even under the most optimistic scenario, warming is expected to reach 1.8°C. It further notes that once warming surpasses 1.5°C, the impacts of climate change—such as extreme heat, flooding, ecosystem loss, and coastal inundation—will intensify, and the risk of crossing irreversible tipping points in the climate system will increase. According to the report, a pathway remains to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C after a temporary overshoot, provided that immediate and sustained reductions in greenhouse‑gas emissions are combined with well‑governed carbon dioxide removal (CDR). It also emphasizes that there are limits to preparing for unavoidable impacts such as extreme heat and flooding, making it essential to advance both mitigation and adaptation at the same time.